The Hard Right Isn’t Mike Johnson’s Biggest Problem Anymore

Iowa’s Mariannette Miller-Meeks is one of the House Republicans who might stray from conservative orthodoxy in order to survive 2026. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Ever since Republicans took back control of the U.S. House in 2022, their biggest concern has been the unruly hard-right members of the House Freedom Caucus, who have exploited narrow margins of control to keep pressure on their colleagues to obey their wishes. They were largely responsible for ending the Speakership of Kevin McCarthy and they have regularly threatened to withhold support from his successor, the more conservative Mike Johnson. Most recently, President-elect Donald Trump had to intervene personally to order these members to vote for Johnson’s reelection as Speaker. So with Republicans holding an extremely narrow margin of control in the House (right now they can afford just one defection), those responsible for putting together one or two giant budget-reconciliation bills to implement Donald Trump’s legislative agenda are naturally anxious to keep the Freedom Caucus extremists onboard and under control.

But Republicans may have a bigger and different problem than those on their far right wing, who will, as we learned during the Speakership vote, usually obey Trump if no one else. It is close to a scientific certainty that in the 2026 midterms the GOP is going to lose seats — and quite probably control of the House — even if the Trump administration is initially a success (much less if it’s the rolling ball of madness and counterproductive policies it could well become). Over the last 22 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 28 net House seats. The GOP lost 40 seats in Trump’s last midterm in 2018. The current 220-215 GOP margin in the House is probably not sustainable.

Thus, the biggest threat to Republican unity in the House could be members in highly competitive districts who have bigger worries than incurring the anger of Trump or his online army of MAGA trolls. Already Democrats are eyeing a number of Republican-held House districts where a relatively small shift in votes could flip a seat. There are eight where Republicans won by three points or less in 2024, but the initial Democratic hit list includes 29 targets. Democratic optimism has been enhanced by the realization that their current more highly-educated base is likely to turn out in midterm elections more reliably than Trump’s troops, especially without the 47th president’s name being on the ballot. Some vulnerable seats may also be abandoned by Republicans running for higher office (e.g., New York’s Mike Lawler, who is mulling a gubernatorial bid).

House Republicans are already dreading demands from vulnerable members hailing from high-tax states like California, New Jersey, and New York for elimination of the cap on state and local tax deductions included in the 2017 Trump tax legislation — concessions that would be wildly unpopular with the rest of the GOP. More generally, Trump’s budget legislation is almost certainly going to include bigger domestic-spending cuts than we’ve seen proposed in many years, including deep cuts in Medicaid and veterans benefits and elimination of entire federal departments. Agricultural subsidies are also very likely to take a hit, aggravating rural-voter worries about Trump’s tariff-based trade policies and health-care cuts. How’s that going to go over with, say, Iowa’s Mariannette Miller-Meeks, a relatively moderate Republican who won reelection by 799 votes last November?

If Trump’s budget legislation becomes even more draconian due to pressure from the Freedom Caucus or (even more likely) from his powerful sidekick Elon Musk, the risk to marginal House members, and the likelihood of counter-demands if not defections, will increase. And again, it’s important to understand that for Republicans in highly marginal districts, Trump and Musk can’t save them; they may have every incentive to deliberately break with the administration to save their own hides.

At a minimum, vulnerable and less conservative House members (and to some extent their Senate counterparts like Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins) will have to be at the table when these enormous and highly complex budget bills (or quite possibly, a single bill of incredible magnitude) are are put together, and Musk and his right-wing allies will be watching ready to cry “treason!” at any accommodations made for them. If Johnson can make it through this legislative abattoir without losing the key votes — or his Speaker’s gavel — then he will have earned Trump’s undying gratitude. More likely, the Lousianan is going to be roadkill on the path to whatever Republicans can manage to secure in this closely divided Congress.