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Past Is Prologue

  1. past is prologue
    Trump Is Wrong: Jimmy Carter Didn’t Lose Due to Panama CanalThere were many reasons that Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980. The Panama Canal Treaty wasn’t among them.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. past is prologue
    Democrats Were Crushed in 2004, Too. It Didn’t Last Long.Losing to George W. Bush was a lot like losing to Donald Trump a second time, with predictions that the Republicans were the true majority party.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. past is prologue
    Trump’s 2024 Win Isn’t a Repeat of 1980’s Reagan RevolutionThere are some superficial similarities, but there’s no reason to assume Trump is presiding over a dramatic electoral realignment.
    By Ed Kilgore
  4. past is prologue
    Michael Dukakis Riding in a Tank
    Before Harris Snub, Washington Post Refused to Endorse Doomed DukakisThe paper’s last non-endorsement helped seal Dukakis’s fate. This one says more about the Post.
    By Ed Kilgore
  5. early and often
    Can Harris Beat Trump? VPs Tend to Have Good Odds.While Kamala Harris’s candidacy is unprecedented in many ways, quite a few vice-presidents have gone on to win the White House.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. past is prologue
    Why a Late RFK Jr. Polling Boom Is UnlikelyThe last three independent presidential candidates who polled at over 10 percent lost momentum by Election Day.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. past is prologue
    Vietnam in New York
    Gaza War Protests Don’t Yet Rival Anti–Vietnam War MovementToday’s protests are smaller, less focused, and less popular than those of the Vietnam era. But they are growing and could spur a similar backlash.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. past is prologue
    Can Joe Biden Pull Off a Harry Truman?High inflation, third-party candidates, an unpopular incumbent: The 1948 election has some lessons for 2024.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. past is prologue
    An Oral History of Throwing Shoes at George W. Bush, 15 Years LaterRevisiting the viral protest by an Iraqi journalist against a U.S. president.
    By Jordan Heller
  10. early and often
    A Late-Entry Candidate Won’t Save Republicans From TrumpAnti-Trump Republicans hope Glenn Youngkin or another dark-horse savior will jump in the 2024 race. But it’s already too late for that.
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. past is prologue
    Ron DeSantis Is Turning Into Scott Walker, FastHe may be one bad debate performance away from a similar demise.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. past is prologue
    Trump Didn’t Hijack Reagan’s GOP; It Was Never Fully HisTrump represents a pre-Reagan, pre-Bush conservatism that has come storming back, leaving Reagan-Bush conservatism to unpopular elites.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. past is prologue
    President Of Israel Delivers Address To Joint Session Of Congress
    2024 Republicans Try an Old Trick: Running Against Kamala HarrisThe GOP is raising alarms about Joe Biden’s health while attacking “President Harris.” It didn’t work against FDR and Harry Truman in 1944.
    By Ed Kilgore
  14. past is prologue
    Did Reagan Team’s Iran-Hostage Sabotage Defeat Jimmy Carter?Reagan-campaign operatives may have prolonged the Iran Hostage Crisis, but that was just one of the damaging political crises Carter faced in 1980.
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. past is prologue
    Trump Allies’ Post-Raid Probe Won’t Be Anything Like the Church CommitteeThe ’70s panel the GOP keeps referencing was a broad, bipartisan review of intelligence agencies. The MAGA version would just target Trump’s enemies.
    By Ed Kilgore
  16. past is prologue
    How Far Will Red States Turn Back Roe?It depends on how much leeway the Supreme Court gives them, and which state is involved.
    By Ed Kilgore
  17. past is prologue
    Cheer Up, Democrats! You’ve Had It Worse Than This.The Democratic Party has a lot of problems, but it’s faced similarly sticky situations before and survived.
    By Ed Kilgore
  18. past is prologue
    American Politics Is Back to the FutureCrime, inflation, parental rights in schools aren’t new issues at all, but a blast from the Republican revival of the ‘70s and ‘80s.
    By Ed Kilgore
  19. past is prologue
    Politics Was Riddled With Celebrities Long Before TrumpActors, musicians, and athletes entering U.S. politics isn’t a new trend — in fact, it may be one of the oldest.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. past is prologue
    Joe Biden Is Not Jimmy Carter, and This Is Not the 1970sThe right’s facile comparisons of the two presidents miss the vastly different circumstances facing Biden and distort Carter’s record.
    By Ed Kilgore
  21. past is prologue
    Biden May Bounce Back Like Other Presidents HaveHistory shows that presidents usually get reelected unless they are unlucky, or, like Donald Trump, they work hard at alienating voters.
    By Ed Kilgore
  22. past is prologue
    Clinton and Biden Bookend the Era of the Swing VoterDifferences in how the two men approached campaigning and governing, despite their similar ideologies, reflect a massive shift in the U.S. electorate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. past is prologue
    How Feasible Is a MAGA Third Party?The history of third parties shows no real template for Trump other than staying in the Republican Party or trying to replace it.
    By Ed Kilgore
  24. past is prologue
    Political Unity Can Also Do Harm. Just Look at American History.From the Era of Good Feelings to the Compromise of 1877 and beyond, nonpartisanship and bipartisanship have often fostered injustice.
    By Ed Kilgore
  25. past is prologue
    The Flimsy Nixon Precedent Trump Is Seizing On to Contest Biden’s WinIn 1960, Nixon disregarded a certified Electoral College slate from Hawaii favoring him. This is not the same as Pence disregarding a national defeat.
    By Ed Kilgore
  26. past is prologue
    Are We Repeating the Pandemic Election Year of a Century Ago?There are similarities between 1920 and 2020, but Trump is no Woodrow Wilson and Biden is no Warren Harding.
    By Ed Kilgore
  27. past is prologue
    The Reasons To Not Like IkeAs the new Eisenhower Memorial opens, a more measured examination of the 34th president and his legacy is appropriate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  28. past is prologue
    The Last Time a Contested Election Tore the Country ApartThe 1876 presidential election and the compromise that settled it offer some key lessons as the possibility of a contested 2020 election result looms.
    By Ed Kilgore
  29. past is prologue
    When Political Conventions Were Must-See TVConventions began evolving from news to infomercial long before this year’s virtual events — but we’ll still miss out on some fun, unexpected moments.
    By Ed Kilgore
  30. past is prologue
    Remembering the Reagan-Ford ‘Co-Presidency’ That Could Have BeenIf you find Biden’s veep selection process boring, look back 40 years to a wild ride at the Republican convention where Reagan eventually picked Bush.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. past is prologue
    Four Years Ago Today, the Trump Circus Came to Town — and Never LeftDonald Trump’s first Republican-debate appearance set the low standard he has maintained ever since.
    By Ed Kilgore
  32. past is prologue
    How the 1969 Mayoral Primary Changed New York City PoliticsLiberal icons in both the Republican and Democratic primaries both lost to conservatives, leading to a sea change in party politics.
    By Ed Kilgore
  33. past is prologue
    If Ross Perot Couldn’t Win the Presidency, There’s No Hope for Howard SchultzPerot didn’t win a single state in 1992 — or cost Bush reelection. Schultz isn’t as well known, and there’s less of a rationale for his candidacy.
    By Ed Kilgore
  34. past is prologue
    1982’s Democratic Wins Were Similar to 2018’s. Then Came Reagan’s Landslide.After a battle to rein in the “Reagan Revolution,” the Democratic Party made House gains in the midterms. Today’s Democrats won’t like what came next.
    By Ed Kilgore