WASHINGTON — If it’s Monday ... President Biden agrees “in principle” to meet with Putin if Russia doesn’t invade Ukraine. ... The U.S. warns that Russia has plans to kill or detain critics and dissidents in Ukraine. ... A new poll shows that the Texas attorney general's race could be headed to a runoff. ... NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa takes a deep dive into the Texas-28 Cuellar-vs.-Cisneros race. ... And the Texas primary is just eight days away.
But first: The Democratic coalition that united to elect Joe Biden and defeat Donald Trump has unraveled nearly a year and a half after the 2020 presidential election.
Just look at Biden’s overall approval rating in our NBC News polling.
- Among young Americans ages 18-34, the president’s job rating has dropped from 56 percent in April’s poll to 40 percent last month (-16 points).
- Among those who backed Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Dem primaries, Biden’s rating has dropped from 88 percent to 74 percent during that same time frame (-14).
- Among independents, it has fallen from 61 percent to 36 percent (-25).
- Among women, the drop has been 10 points, from 61 percent in April to 51 percent now (-10).
- Among whites with college degrees, it has been another 10 points, 57 percent to 47 percent (-10).
- Among Latinos, it has gone from 59 percent to 48 percent (-11).
- And among Blacks — the voting bloc arguably most responsible for Biden’s winning the Dem nomination — the president’s job rating has declined from 83 percent in April to 64 percent (-19).
In 2020, all of these groups came together to oust Trump from office by 4.5 points in the popular vote, 51.3 percent to 46.8 percent.
But in early 2022, this Democratic coalition has frayed.
And it’s one of the central reasons the Democrats’ midterm outlook — at least right now — looks so bleak for the party.
Tweet of the day
Data Download: The number of the day is ... 39 percent
That’s the share of the Republican primary vote that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton received in the latest Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll. If he hits that mark in next week’s primary, he’d be forced into a runoff (in Texas, candidates move on to runoffs unless one wins the majority of votes).
Paxton, who has long been dogged by fraud accusations, is followed in the poll by Land Commissioner George P. Bush, at 25 percent. Former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman follows with 13 percent, and Rep. Louie Gohmert brings up the rear with 7 percent.
The same poll shows former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke with a 40 percent favorability rating (and a 46 percent unfavorable rating) as he runs for governor against incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, who has an approval mark of 50 percent, with 46 percent disapproving of his job performance.
Other numbers you need to know today:
8: The number of days until Texas’ primary.
25: The number of medals (including eight gold) won by the U.S. Olympic team, enough to finish fifth in the Winter Olympics (Norway won the most medals, with 37).
1971: The year the federal observance of George Washington’s birthday was moved to the third Monday in February. (Fun fact: The legal name of what’s known as “Presidents’ Day” is still “Washington’s Birthday.”)
$15 million: How much billionaire Larry Ellison donated to a super PAC backing Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, as first reported by Politico.
Midterm roundup
Primary season is right around the corner, and both parties are grappling with different intraparty dynamics. House Democratic retirements have created more opportunities for progressives looking to move the caucus to the left, NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald reports.
And House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump are gearing up for races against Trump-backed primary challengers, per Politico.
Redistricting, along with the recent FBI raid of Texas Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar’s home and campaign office, complicates Cuellar’s path to victory in next week’s primary against attorney Jessica Cisneros, NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa reports from Laredo.
Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, is spending $150,000 to bolster Rep. Van Taylor, R-Texas, ahead of next week’s primary, per an FEC filing from over the weekend. Taylor has been spending on the airwaves himself as he faces challengers from his right.
Former Sen. Jack Danforth, R-Mo., is calling for an independent candidate to jump into the state’s open Senate race and told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that such a candidate “would be very, very well-funded.”
Ad watch: A primary battle in Texas
Just over a week out from Texas’ March 1 primary, the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund is running a new ad in Houston supporting Morgan Luttrell for the Republican nomination in Texas’ 8th Congressional District.
The ad highlights Luttrell’s military service before a narrator tells viewers, “After we send Morgan Luttrell to Congress, Luttrell will fight the Biden-Pelosi agenda and defend our Texas way of life.”
Luttrell and his most notable opponent, conservative activist Christian Collins, have split key Republicans in the state. Luttrell is endorsed by multiple law enforcement leaders, former Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Dan Crenshaw and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Collins, meanwhile, has been endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz, for whom he used to work, and the House Freedom Caucus.
ICYMI: What else is happening in the world
Queen Elizabeth II has tested positive for Covid.
The White House has been facing pressure from some allies to continue a pause on student loan payments through the midterms.
The Supreme Court will hear a case about the Trump administration’s “Remain in Mexico” asylum policy.
The CDC hasn’t been publishing some of the Covid data that it’s been collecting.
NPR profiles the rocky rollout of the first public option health care plan in Washington state.
Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn of Minnesota passed away Thursday at 59 after suffering from kidney cancer.