Happening this Friday: President Biden travels to Dover Air Force Base to meet with families of fallen U.S. servicemembers killed in Jordan… Senate negotiators announce they have a deal on immigration… RNC members say there’s no chance of convention fight against Trump… Nikki Haley campaigns in South Carolina… And VP Harris holds a get-out-the-vote event in South Carolina before tomorrow’s Democratic primary there.
But FIRST… This week, we observed focus groups featuring a combined 15 female 2020 Trump voters from Pennsylvania who support abortion rights.
Two of them said they’re definitely not voting for Donald Trump in 2024’s general election.
Also this week, NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez interviewed a 2020 Biden voter from Michigan, Lori-Kamleh Ajlouny, who said she won’t vote for President Joe Biden in ’24 due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Gutierrez: So, if not President Biden, would you vote for former President Trump?
Ajlouny: No.
Gutierrez: So who would you vote for?
Ajlouny: I would write in on the ballot, “Ceasefire. Free Palestine.”
Gutierrez: Even though that could potentially give the election to former President Trump?
Ajlouny: If things don’t change, then I have no choice.
These defections — from both Trump and Biden — seem small from the pool of the nearly 160 million Americans who voted in the 2020 presidential election.
But they’re also reminders that the 2024 margins will matter.
Will the same share of Democrats (94% per the exit poll) who backed Biden in 2020 do the same in 2024?
What about the same share of Republicans (also 94%) who voted for Trump?
Will they vote for a third-party candidate? Cast a write-in ballot? Or not vote at all?
Those things could all decide the outcome of the 2024 election, if it is indeed a rematch between Biden and Trump.
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 55
That’s the number of pledged delegates at stake in Saturday’s Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina.
Those delegates will be allocated proportionally based on the results of the contest (plus, there are also 10 “superdelegates” sent to the Democratic National Convention from South Carolina).
President Joe Biden is widely expected to claim victory on Saturday, though he will be appearing as an option on the primary ballot alongside Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, both of whom are mounting long-shot bids to beat Biden.
This is the first contest on the Democratic calendar to award delegates, as the Democratic National Committee did not recognize the January primary in New Hampshire and did not award any delegates to Biden, who won the primary on write-in votes.
Biden will need 1,968 delegates to secure his party’s nomination.
Eyes on November: Biden hits the trail in Michigan
President Joe Biden traveled to Michigan on Thursday to capitalize on his recent endorsement from the United Auto Workers.
“We now have, in large part because of you and organized labor, the strongest economy in the whole damn world,” Biden told workers at a union hall in Warren, Mich., per NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez.
Gutierrez reports that Biden is facing a challenge in the crucial swing state among Muslim and Arab Americans, a key part of Democrats’ coalition there, who say they cannot support Biden given his staunch support for Israel in its war against Hamas.
“I am heartbroken. I am so hurt that it’s a feeling of betrayal,” one Michigan voter told Gutierrez. She said she would write in “Ceasefire” and “Free Palestine” on the ballot in November instead of voting for Biden.
The president’s trip comes as recent polling has shown Biden in a close race in Michigan in a hypothetical rematch against Trump, even trailing Trump by a few percentage points after Biden won the state by just 3 points in 2020.
A recent swing state survey from Morning Consult and Bloomberg found Trump leading Biden, 47% to 42%, in Michigan. The survey had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.
In other campaign news …
Betting on Trump: Republican Party officials aren’t expecting a fight at the convention over Trump’s possible nomination, unlike in 2016, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard reports from the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting in Las Vegas.
Online boosts: New filings from both parties’ online fundraising platforms detail when presidential contenders saw spikes in grassroots donations last year. Trump’s best fundraising day came when his mug shot was released in the Georgia election interference case, while Haley saw bumps around the GOP debates and Biden found success in month-end fundraising pitches.
Confusion in Nevada: NBC’s Natasha Korecki reports that voters have been flooding Nevada election officials and state GOP officials with calls and questions about the state’s dual contests next week, where Haley will appear on the primary ballot but Trump will participate in the caucuses.
Hope and change: Biden’s campaign is taking a different approach to his re-election strategy than former President Barack Obama, leaning more on national and state party infrastructures, CNN reports.
Schiff-ty: Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff appeared to be boosting Republican Steve Garvey in a new TV ad in the California Senate race, apparently hoping to prop up Garvey in the state’s Top 2 primary, so he faces the Republican instead of another Democrat in November, per Politico. Schiff also picked up an endorsement from former Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, per Fox40.
Seeking revenge: Allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was ejected from the speakership last year and left Congress in December, are working to recruit primary challengers to run against the eight Republicans who pushed to oust him from the speaker’s chair, Politico reports.
The race for cash: Democrat Tom Suozzi raised $4.5 million for his special election bid in New York’s 3rd District, while his opponent, Republican Mazi Pilip, raised just $1.3 million, Politico reports.
Walk out at your own risk: Oregon’s Supreme Court said Thursday that 10 GOP state senators who staged a walkout from the legislature are not eligible for re-election, based on a measure approved by voters aimed at limiting similar walkouts.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world:
Senate negotiators on Thursday said they’ve struck a tentative deal on a package that includes new border security measures and aid to Ukraine and Israel.
Colorado GOP Rep. Ken Buck said Thursday that he will not vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas when a vote comes to the floor, potentially endangering the impeachment effort given Republicans’ slim margins in the House.
In an executive order issued Thursday, Biden introduced sanctions against foreign nationals in Israel who perpetrate violence against Palestinians.
A former CIA officer who leaked the existence of secret government hacking tools to WikiLeaks was sentenced to 40 years in federal prison on Thursday.