The long, contentious, and largely opaque debate among Democrats about President Biden’s fitness and viability as the party’s 2024 presidential nominee following his dismal performance in a debate with Donald Trump has created a lot of questions about their options going forward. Now that talk of replacing the president as the Democrats’ 2024 nominee has gotten serious, distant historical precedents and arcane Democratic National Committee rules are suddenly very relevant. Here’s a guide to how Democrats could choose another candidate to face Trump in November.
Can Biden still be replaced?
Yes. At this point he is simply the “presumptive nominee.” The Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which begins on August 19, would normally name the actual nominee. But since May the Democratic National Committee has been planning to hold a “virtual roll call” (much like the one deployed in 2020 when Democrats minimized live events in response to the COVID-19 pandemic) to nominate its candidate well before the convention. The desire to go virtual was in part a response to an August 7 ballot deadline in Republican-controlled Ohio. It would also allow Democrats to avoid a live convention roll call that might become a target for anti-Biden protesters angry at his position on the Gaza war.
Since the June 27 debate Biden supporters have seized upon the virtual roll call as a way to short-circuit any rebellion against the president, and for a while it looked like the DNC might move it up to as early as July 21. After a negative reaction to the idea of a “rushed” nomination, most notably from House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Democratic Chuck Schumer, the DNC has backed off any plans to make the nomination before the beginning of August. It’s also worth noting that the Ohio legislature changed the state’s ballot deadline to September 1 (in a law that would only take effect on that date), but there remain Democratic suspicions about GOP chicanery on this front.
On July 19 the DNC Rules Committee is expected to determine a date (probably between August 1 and August 7) and the exact procedures for a virtual roll call. It’s possible Biden’s uncertain situation could produce some delays. But in any event, until there’s a formal nomination the name that will go onto the bumper stickers, theoretically at least, could be Joe Biden, me, or you.
Would Biden have to drop out? Or could he be replaced against his will?
If Biden is to be replaced, it would be much easier — and from a political point of view, immensely better — if Biden withdrew as a candidate. For one thing, that would get rid of the obligation delegates had to support him under the laws of 14 states. And it could pave the way to a reasonably harmonious convention and far less disruption of the general election campaign.
But technically speaking, a majority of convention delegates can nominate whomever they wish. State laws aside, pledged Democratic delegates (unlike Republican delegates) have no more than a moral obligation to back their candidate, and a convention-passed rule could even override state laws.
Does Kamala Harris have to be Biden’s replacement?
No. Like Biden, until she is formally renominated the vice-president has no special status. Even if Biden resigned his office and Harris became president, she’d have to be nominated by delegates to appear on the November ballot.
Which other Democrats could replace Biden?
In theory, anyone who met the constitutional qualifications to serve as president could replace Biden. In reality, there’s no sort of consensus behind any particular “replacement” candidate. (Perhaps the most discussed fallback candidate, former First Lady Michelle Obama, has repeatedly denied interest.) No one is likely to step forward as long as Biden is still running, and if Biden withdraws, his support for a replacement will be all-important and perhaps dispositive. There’s no reason to think he’d back anyone other than his vice-president.
Names of Democrats who have been kicked around in fantasy scenarios for a Biden-less ticket have included a number of governors — notably California’s Gavin Newsom, Illinois’ J.B. Pritzker, Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro — along with 2020 candidate and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and some real long shots like Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia. Some progressives might even note that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez turns 35 in October. But again, there’s no consensus, and while pundits thrill at the idea of an “open convention” where multiple candidates duke it out, that would be a nightmare for a party trying to plan a general election campaign.
There’s been an effort by some voices who favor a non-Biden, non-Harris solution to the current quandary to imagine some sort of pre-roll-call public gatherings — perhaps even debates — to build consensus. One circulating proposal calls for a “blitz primary” — but it’s unlikely such an idea is even remotely feasible. It’s hard enough to envision a deliberative convention choosing an alternative nominee, since it hasn’t happened in many decades, much less some sort of out-of-nowhere series of totally unprecedented and unauthorized events. And where is the disinterested group of Democrats who can be trusted to competently and fairly organize such a novel plan with the presidency potentially on the line?
In any event, all these “open convention” scenarios should be assessed in terms of the disaster that could face Democrats if they push aside both Biden and Harris and then deadlock on a nominee. One unhappy precedent is the Democratic Convention in New York exactly a century ago, where a dispirited and divided party nominated an obscure diplomat after 103 ballots who got absolutely clocked in the general election.
What would the process look like at the convention?
The presidential balloting is scheduled to take place prior to the convention. But the process, virtual or live, would be the same: a name or names would be placed into nomination by a delegate, and state delegations would vote in alphabetical order until someone has a majority.
What’s the role of Democratic superdelegates?
Unlike Republicans, Democrats have superdelegates — 744 of them in 2024 — who attend the convention in recognition of the offices they hold (or held). They include members of the DNC; members of Congress; governors; and former presidents and vice-presidents. They are free to support whomever they wish but cannot vote on the first ballot, when the nomination will very likely be determined.
How would a new vice-presidential nominee be selected?
Just as the old vice-presidential nominee was chosen: by a roll-call vote. This person would probably be the presidential nominee’s preferred running mate, but delegates could choose someone else. The last time there was a serious convention vote for someone other than the presidential nominee’s running mate was at the 1968 RNC, when George Romney got a significant number of votes against eventual nominee Spiro T. Agnew. Going back further to 1956, Democratic nominee Adlai Stevenson decided to let the convention pick the nominee with no recommendation on his part, which produced an exciting ballot battle involving John F. Kennedy, Albert Gore, Sr., Hubert Humphrey and the eventual winner Estes Kefauver. That kind of scenario is probably even less likely than an “open convention” determining the presidential nominee.
Could Biden be replaced after the convention?
Members of the Democratic National Committee (not convention delegates) have the power to fill vacancies on the presidential ticket by a simple majority. It exercised that power in 1972 when then-Senator Thomas Eagleton stepped down as George McGovern’s running mate after revelations of drunk-driving charges and electroshock therapy. So if Biden or Harris or anyone else resigned from the ticket after the convention, the DNC could replace them. But there’s no clear power to remove a nominee who won’t go quietly.
Has a party ever replaced its presidential nominee?
No. Plenty of presidential nominees have begun the general election campaign in a deeper hole than Biden is in right now, but none have been replaced. The talk of replacing him is largely a function of the special horror Democrats have for the prospect of a second Trump term.
Is there any polling on how a Biden replacement would do against Trump?
There are two very recent surveys that test alternatives, including a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on July 2:
When asked about hypothetical Democratic candidate matches against Trump, 50% of registered voters say they would vote for Michelle Obama, and just 39% say they would vote for Trump.
All other hypothetical Democratic candidates either perform similarly to or worse than Biden against Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris hypothetically wins 42% of registered voters to Trump’s 43%. California Governor Gavin Newsom hypothetically wins 39% of registered voters to Trump’s 42%. All other hypothetical Democratic candidates earn between 34% to 39% of potential votes among registered voters.
A CNN survey also released on July 2 showed Kamala Harris trailing Trump by just two points; Pete Buttigieg trailing Trump by four points; and Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whimter trailing him by five points.
Is Biden showing signs of recovering in polls matching him up with Trump?
It’s hard to say. Most credible post-debate general election polls are showing Biden losing a couple of points against Trump, with some terrible internal findings that big majorities of voters think Biden is too old. The fear of disaster has been compounded by a possible polling bounce for Trump attributable to the attempt to assassinate him, and/or to the just-completed Republican convention. But there’s no real proof just yet that the race has changed fundamentally, so the panic right now is mostly among Democrats who were already on the edge of panic before the debate.
More on the trump-biden debate
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