Unlike in his first term, Donald Trump seems determined to hit the ground running when he takes office again on January 20, 2025. He clearly believes his narrow win over Kamala Harris and the congressional trifecta the Republican Party won by the smallest possible margin give him an unconditional popular mandate to do whatever he wants. And so far, Republican lawmakers have demonstrated little interest in pushing back on the president-elect’s extreme policy plans and rogue gallery of Cabinet nominees.
But there’s only so much that can be done in a day, even when you’re president, and Congress has its own priorities. So how quickly can Trump and his Republican allies enact his agenda? Here’s a look at the likely timetable for 2025.
.
Early January: A Pre-Inauguration Gift From Congress
The key to implementing Trump’s legislative agenda will be the budget-reconciliation process that enables Congress to bypass the Senate filibuster and enact a big package of new laws on an up-or-down party-line vote. This is how Trump got his tax cuts in 2017 and how he tried to repeal Obamacare. Items in a budget-reconciliation bill must be focused on fiscal matters, but it’s still a huge asset to a party that controls the White House and both chambers of Congress.
It’s beginning to look like Team Trump wants two budget-reconciliation bills, one focused on authorizing the huge buildup in border-security resources necessary for Trump’s mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and another aimed at extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts. There’s increasing talk of a very quick start on the first bill. Since the 119th Congress will be sworn in on January 3, Congress could get moving on a budget resolution setting up this bill even before Trump takes office.
.
Day One: What Trump Can Do Unilaterally
Moving with unusual haste, Trump has announced 52 picks for high-ranking positions that will require Senate confirmation — but he can’t make any official nominations until he’s sworn in on January 20. Confirmation hearings will need to be scheduled, along with committee and floor votes. According to Ballotpedia, the average time for confirmation of Trump nominees after they were submitted to the GOP-controlled Senate in 2017 was 37 days. That’s probably about as fast as the Senate can process Trump’s picks even if there are no major holdups or controversies.
Once he’s sworn in, Trump can take action on a wide variety of promises without any help from Congress. This includes pardoning at least some of the January 6 insurrectionists, imposing “emergency” tariffs, and canceling or reversing executive orders issued by Joe Biden. When Trump declared that he would be a dictator on day one, he said he’d prioritize reversing Biden’s policies on border security and fossil-fuel use. “We’re closing the border and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling,” Trump told Sean Hannity. “After that, I’m not a dictator. Okay?”
Several of Trump’s proposed day-one actions will undoubtedly face immediate legal challenges, as they raise major constitutional questions. These include his desire to revive the Nixonesque practice of presidential impoundment of appropriations and to eliminate birthright citizenship via executive order. You can expect the upcoming regime to churn out as many new policies as possible, then determine which to prioritize in the courts or by way of congressional authorizations.
.
February: The First Big Legislative Package
The first budget-reconciliation bill could wind up on Trump’s desk very quickly, perhaps within a month of the inauguration. At that point, there will have to be a reckoning about how to handle the Trump-administration priorities that didn’t get included in the initial blitz.
.
March: The Spending Cliff
Congress is currently putting the final touches on a stopgap spending bill to keep the federal government functioning past December 20, when a previous “continuing resolution” expires. The consensus is that the new bill will extend current spending levels until mid-March 2025. At that point, the new Republican-controlled Congress can scrap spending compromises they made with Democrats during the past two years of divided government.
Thanks to the fiscal math implied in Trump’s priorities, along with pent-up conservative demands for massive domestic spending cuts, the odds are high that final spending levels will include increased defense spending and major reductions in the discretionary programs not protected by Trump as sacred cows (e.g., Social Security and Medicare).
If Congress fails to act by mid-March there could theoretically be a government shutdown, but unified GOP control of Congress makes that unlikely.
.
June: The Debt-Limit Cliff
Another decision point for the new regime will be the end of a national debt-limit suspension set by a bipartisan deal in mid-2023. Technically, the suspension ends on January 1, 2025, but the U.S. Treasury will be able to paper over it with a “temporary measure” to pay Uncle Sam’s bills for a few months. The current calculation is that Congress will need to either increase or suspend the debt limit by June to avoid a default on government obligations and a financial crisis.
Members of Congress in both parties (but especially Republicans) are traditionally reluctant to vote for debt-limit measures; some flatly refuse regardless of the circumstances. But Wall Street will insist on it happening, which likely means a debt-limit increase or suspension will be nestled in some other must-pass legislation. If Republicans pursue the two-reconciliation-bill strategy for enacting Trump’s legislative agenda, including the debt limit in the second one would make a lot of sense.
.
December: The Trump Tax-Renewal Deadline
The 2017 Trump tax cuts expire at the end of 2025, so Republicans have an additional incentive to get a second budget reconciliation passed by then. This will be Wall Street’s and K Street’s reward for supporting the rest of the Trump agenda. But the “dessert” of tax cuts may involve first identifying the “broccoli” of offsetting spending cuts, or perhaps relaying on tariffs to raise federal revenues.
All in all, triumphant Republicans have a lot on their plate right now. From a historical perspective, it’s very likely Democrats will flip the House in the 2026 midterms, so they’ll have to move fast to enact everything on Trump’s wish list.
More on politics
- What Happened to Texas Congresswoman Kay Granger?
- Who Is Lara Trump and What’s With the Quashed Senate Rumors?
- The Republican Party Is Out of Control
