New York City is no longer contending with a record-setting snowless streak, but it’s still been slim pickings for storm lovers lately. The days have been wintry and brisk, and there’s a thin layer of white on the ground, yet the substantial precipitation of years past has once again failed to appear. For those of us who appreciate the four seasons, something is missing. (Those who prefer their weather boring will not be dignified.) I spoke with fellow snow enjoyer John Homenuk, who runs the cultishly popular New York Metro Weather, about whether and when New York might see a real snowstorm and what the rest of the year might look like, weatherwise. We also discussed the meteorology of Los Angeles’s devastating fires and worsening climate change.
First of all, I know fires aren’t necessarily your specialty, but what do you make of the weather factors behind this catastrophic situation in Los Angeles?
Our work has expanded into all kinds of different sectors now, so we’ve got a couple of guys who we work with out there who are either affected personally or are monitoring for impacts to infrastructure. The meteorology behind it has been incredible. It’s really a highly unusual event, especially this time of year. This usually happens in the fall.
It’s just such a — and I say the word perfect with hesitation, because I don’t want it to come across the wrong way — perfect setup for such extreme winds and such extreme conditions. There was a lot of warning, but unfortunately fires are kind of like tornadoes in a way. You have a warning, but when the fire actually occurs, what do you do?
Other than vacate, there’s not much to do. Can you elaborate on why the conditions were so ripe for fires to break out?
There’s an unusual — we call it a cutoff low, but it’s basically when a mid- or upper-level low-pressure system cuts off from the rest of the jet stream. That has been sinking over California, and because of how intense it is and because of the way that the winds are funneling, it’s really just an incredible Santa Ana wind event — impressive and unusual. One of the interesting things about it is it’s the same low that’s going to be responsible for winter weather in the southern Plains in a couple of days. It’s going to phase with another disturbance and bring snow to Texas and New Mexico. So it’s got all kinds of tricks up its sleeve, and, unfortunately, it’s become a really impactful system.
But that means that it’s moving out of California soon, so the peak fire conditions will die down soon.
Definitely, yeah. They always linger a little longer than you think because it doesn’t take much wind to keep things going, but the intense stuff will end by Thursday.
Turning to matters on the East Coast: There was talk of a possible big storm this weekend based on one weather model, but it looks like a bust at this point or at least a smaller event. How do you see that unfolding?
That’s why I haven’t said anything as of the moment of this conversation. I think all models are useful. You want to look at the body of work of what the model guidance is telling you, but when it’s just the American model showing something, or any one model, it’s really a good idea to take it with a grain of salt. Because if there’s a big, big storm threat, they’re all going to lock onto it at some point and show it. There’s a reason why I take a lot of pride in not hyping things up.
It’s in your job description, practically.
Well, you’ve got to be careful. When the big one comes, I will be screaming from the rooftops, but with this one, I just feel that the phasing is not right. A couple of the recent runs have looked kind of similar to what we just saw a few days ago, where we just get bumped by a system as it goes by. A true snow lover will take it, if that’s what occurs. But for most people who are looking for a big one or the snowstorms that we used to get — I can’t believe I’m saying “that we used to get” — it probably won’t really satiate them.
The last couple of times we spoke, in January and December of 2023, we discussed how New York City hadn’t seen any snow in ages. Since then, we finally broke that record-setting streak. But our last actually big storm was when? Four, five years ago?
We had one in 2021. But the last big, big one was 2016, which ended up being the all-time greatest snowfall amount in New York City. I think I speak for snow lovers when I say that when there’s a big one coming, there’s just a different vibe around it. People are excited. It makes you feel like a kid again in some ways. I feel like a lot of people are kind of really waiting for that and to not have one since 2016 — we’re approaching ten years. I mean, that’s a crazy amount of time.
It’s unconscionable, frankly. You have at least said that there’s still favorable cold-weather patterns in the near term, right? Tell me we’re not going back to 50-degree days soon.
The model data is pretty strongly hinting at another cold shot from about the 18th to the 23rd or 24th, and it’s already cold before then anyway, so we’re stuck in this pattern for a while. The unfortunate thing is that to get snow, you need more than cold. It raises your chances of seeing snow significantly but doesn’t guarantee anything.
At some point in February, we will warm up, which might not be the worst thing if you’re a snow lover, because sometimes these deep-cold patterns are a little too cold. When you get this cold coming down from Siberia and the Arctic and the North Pole or wherever it’s coming from, it can really suppress the storm track down to the South. That’s what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. At least for now, the storms have just missed us. And don’t get me wrong, there’s been some bad luck involved. The timing has just been slightly off; the storm a couple of days ago could have very well impacted us. The timing could not have been worse. And this next one coming up — we just can’t line the phasing up to get the storm up the coast. So there’s moisture around here. It’s just the cold is a little too suppressive, so maybe a little bit less cold will be a good thing to get some more significant storms in here.
Do you have any thoughts about the weather patterns further out this year? The last time we spoke, we were getting into a La Niña year. I know long-range forecasts are hazy, but what can you glean about 2025?
Right now, we’re still in a weak La Niña regime. There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding exactly how it’s going to go. The model guidance is not being very helpful, and the observations are all over the place. So we are in a little bit of a chaotic mode in terms of trying to get the forecast down for spring and summer. The one thing that I think we can guarantee is that we’ll go into spring, at least at the beginning, first half of it, with a weak La Niña. And those tend to be fairly active in our area. So I think the drought we were in before — we’ll be in a little bit of the opposite kind of pattern in late winter and spring, where we could have quite a bit of precipitation over and over, and maybe that’ll come with chances for winter weather as well. We’ll see. But I think for the broad view of the United States, the pattern looks active. The La Niñas tend to be drier in the Plains states and in the Southwest. So I unfortunately suspect that we’re just getting started with the drought issues in the Plains and in the country as a whole.
To zoom out even further, 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history, which came as a surprise to no one.
I was going to say: big shock.
Does the continuing La Niña regime indicate that this year will be anything different than that? Or is it just expected that every year will now be the hottest?
I think every year is going to have variance. I always say weather and climate are two separate things, and with weather, you get a lot of variation in the short term and the climate is a more long-term, zoomed-out trend. But I think the trend is pretty clear. Even if 2025 or 2026 were not the warmest on record, I’m sure 2027 or 2028 would be. It’s hard in advance to predict 2025, but what I would argue is it doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things because the overall trend line is so bad.
Focusing on one year is folly. I only ask because I keep seeing reports that climate scientists are surprised by how quickly things are heating up, and whether it means their models were too conservative or whether it’s more of a blip. Which is a bit scary, to say the least.
Yeah, it is. I don’t typically like to put too much politics in my reports and stuff, but I saw one thing that it’s not even necessarily political when it came to the last election, which was that climate change was like the 23rd out of 25th most important topic to people. And to me that’s an indictment of the work we’ve done to try to make this as public as possible. I think people just don’t feel an accessible path to make a difference. In the next five, ten years of my life, I want to try to make a little bit more of a connection between weather and climate and just let people know that information, so maybe they can feel a bit more connected to it. Because that was a stat that I stared at for four hours straight.
I fear that it will also be an also-ran issue for most people, compared to putting food on the table and the other basics.
The other thing is, and I totally get this, people don’t want to hear it sometimes. And listen, sometimes I don’t want to hear it either. Sometimes, I get the numbers and I get the stats and I’m just like, Oh my God, enough. It’s the end of the world — we know. I understand that, but the reality of it is, at least for me, I feel like I have a responsibility to share this for the people around me and for future generations to maybe feel more connected and make some changes. So to answer your question directly, I don’t know what 2025 has in store. I would be shocked if it wasn’t one of the warmest years on record, and the long-term trend continues to be extremely concerning.
Have you thought about gluing yourself to paintings at art museums to get the word out?
Stay tuned.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
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