Republicans are set to take control of both chambers of Congress in January as President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. But the extent of the party’s power in the U.S. Senate was unclear for weeks following the election due to the outstanding race in Pennsylvania. Initially, Democratic senator Bob Casey held off from conceding to his Republican challenger Dave McCormick citing outstanding ballots, though several news outlets called the race in McCormick’s favor. But on November 21, Casey announced that he had called McCormick to officially concede after Pennsylvania completed its initial round of counting in its statewide recount. Here’s where the race stands.
What happened?
On November 7, the Associated Press called the race in favor of McCormick while other major news outlets like the New York Times and CNN had yet to declare a winner. (The frequently reliable Decision Desk, however, has also deemed McCormick victorious.) Despite the AP’s call, Casey, the three-term senator, held off on conceding, citing the slim margin between him and McCormick and has been adamant about waiting for every vote to be counted.
“Pennsylvania is where our democratic process was born. We must allow that process to play out and ensure that every vote that is eligible to be counted will be counted,” Casey said following the AP’s call.
Initially, the Casey campaign pointed to a statement from Al Schmidt, the state’s secretary of state, who said on November 7 that there were an estimated 100,000 ballots remaining to be processed. In addition to Election Day votes, the outstanding votes include provisional, military, and overseas ballots. In a November 11 press release, the campaign noted that provisional ballots “broke overwhelmingly” for John Fetterman in 2022 at a larger margin than Casey currently needs to overtake McCormick. Fetterman would later go on to win his Senate seat over his Republican challenger Mehmet Oz.
Where does the count stand now?
According to official state-election returns, McCormick leads Casey by a little more than 16,000 votes, a difference of less than a percentage point. The slim figure was enough to trigger a statewide recount of the race after Casey did not waive his right to the process. Notably, McCormick’s 2022 primary race against Oz also fell into recount territory, though it was not enough to change the results in his favor. Historically, recounts rarely change the outcomes in races, per a study from FairVote.
With the tight margin, the campaigns have begun to fight over the few outstanding ballots remaining. On November 8, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the McCormick campaign had filed a lawsuit seeking to challenge tens of thousands of provisional ballots from Philadelphia, a traditionally blue city, as well as a request for a Republican observer for the processing of those ballots. The judge denied McCormick’s observer request, prompting his team to pull the other lawsuit, which it could later refile, per WHYY.
The McCormick campaign has also filed multiple lawsuits intended to block the counting of undated mail ballots after Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery, and Centre county officials decided to accept them despite a series of court rulings that barred their counting, per the Inquirer. On Friday, McCormick officially sued Philadelphia’s Board of Commissioners following their move. On Monday, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that ballots with date errors should not be counted in the race.
What are the campaigns saying?
While Casey awaited the complete vote tally, McCormick declared victory and began making the rounds in cable interviews as Pennsylvania’s new senator-elect. “This election and the incredible mandate that President Trump has and the support that I have is a recognition that we need to shake things up. No incrementalism. We need to bring about real change,” he said in an interview with Fox News on November 10.
McCormick also attended orientation events in Washington for new members of the Senate after he was initially not extended an invitation owing to his race not being called. Many of his Republican colleagues denounced the lack of an invite as a partisan snub from outgoing Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer. “Dave McCormick is the senator-elect and Senator Schumer’s move to not allow him to participate in orientation this week is disgusting. They did the same thing to me after I beat a Democrat in 2018. We have to fight this!” Florida senator Rick Scott wrote on social media Sunday. “AP called it. Dave won, Casey must concede NOW.”
For weeks, Casey appeared determined to hold out until the very last vote, despite his narrowing path to victory. On Thursday, the senator issued a statement officially conceding the race to McCormick. “This race was one of the closest in our Commonwealth’s history, decided by less than a quarter of a point. I am grateful to the thousands of people who worked to make sure that every eligible vote cast could be counted, including election officials in all 67 counties,” he said.
