Part of Donald Trump’s mystique is that it is often impossible to determine rational motives for his conduct, particularly when he’s on the campaign trail presumably trying to make some new friends. Those outside the adoring MAGA bubble sometimes think of him as the Toddler President, a hooligan with poor impulse control who regularly damages his own cause. But other times, they fear he is some sort of evil (if not very stable) genius with a devilish instinct for political opportunities others don’t see. You can see this ambivalence in reactions to Trump’s decision at the most crucial moment of this crazy-close election to hold rallies in Aurora, Colorado, on October 11; in the Coachella Valley of California on October 12; and then at New York’s Madison Square Garden on October 27.
Not even the most spin-crazy Trump sycophant really believes he has even a remote chance of carrying any of these three states: In 2020, he lost California by 29 points, New York by 23 points, and Colorado by 13 points. So there’s a natural tendency to wonder if an undisciplined Trump is wasting time better spent in the battleground states that will actually decide this election. History buffs may know that one reason often given for Richard Nixon’s photo-finish 1960 loss to John F. Kennedy is that the Republican foolishly promised to campaign in all 50 states, and on the weekend before the election was messing around in Alaska as Kennedy barnstormed through New Jersey and Illinois, crucial states the Democrat won by an eyelash. Is Trump making a similar mistake?
Perhaps, but here are four potential reasons Trump might at least semi-rationally decide to do what he’s doing:
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The locations help him tell a story
There’s no question that Trump is heading to Aurora because of a recent incident that reinforces his mega-message that Biden and Harris have opened the borders to murderous migrants who are terrorizing the law-abiding heartland, as the Trump campaign makes clear:
Aurora, Colorado, has become a “war zone” due to the influx of violent Venezuelan prison gang members from Tren de Aragua. With approximately 43,000 migrants flooding the neighboring city of Denver since December 2022, many of these migrants have made their way to Aurora, bringing chaos and fear with them. Local families have been forced to flee their homes as Tren de Aragua members terrorize apartment complexes with guns, theft, and rampant drug activity …
Denver, just 15 miles away and a sanctuary city, is buckling under the strain of illegal immigrants who have overwhelmed the city’s safety-net hospital.
As you might suspect, Trump’s tale is about as authentic as his earlier accounts of the pet-eating Haitians of Springfield, Ohio, as Aurora’s Republican mayor explained to the Hill:
Aurora, Colo., Mayor Mike Coffman (R) said former President Trump’s claims about the city were “grossly exaggerated” as the GOP presidential nominee looks to hold a rally in the state after calling it a “war zone” due to migrants.
“Former President Trump’s visit to Aurora is an opportunity to show him and the nation that Aurora is a considerably safe city – not a city overrun by Venezuelan gangs,” Coffman said in a statement. “My public offer to show him our community and meet with our police chief for a briefing still stands.”
Somewhat less melodramatically, Trump’s Coachella Valley rally will allow him to amplify claims that Kamala Harris’s California is a hellscape of crime and Marxism. While the City of Coachella’s Democrat mayor has raged against the former president’s descent on his community, there are plenty of conservative voters nearby who are as likely as Trump to demonize the progressive coastal areas of the state that allegedly persecute them.
There are down-ballot implications
While Trump is not known for deep empathy with those sharing his ticket, he is surely aware that his vengeful plans for a second term would be enhanced significantly if his party controls Congress. His August rally in deep-red Montana, where Republicans believe the defeat of Democrat Jon Tester will enable them to flip the Senate, showed he is paying attention to down-ballot races.
As it happens, there are ten highly competitive House races in California and New York, and a Trump appearance nearby could goose GOP turnout and promote party-organizing efforts in ways that could make a difference in those contests.
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Trump rallies invariably go viral
You could make the argument that Trump’s rallies are a sort of rolling political phenomenon designed less for their local effects than for the inevitable amplification via conservative media and social-media outlets. Spreading them around helps convey the sense that the former president’s campaign is sweeping the nation, particularly since a lot of the format and content represent a sort of MAGA greatest hits that attendees know and love. It’s a show that never ends, and thus where it lands and doesn’t land beyond the core battleground states doesn’t much matter.
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Some motives may be very personal to Trump
None of this is to say that Trump doesn’t have personal and perhaps eccentric reasons for wanting to hold rallies in states he cannot carry. The Los Angeles Times suggests that the Coachella Valley event may in part represent a tip of the hat to a loyal donor:
Saturday’s event is taking place at a property owned by a company controlled by a family of major GOP donors. (They also own the property that hosts the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival and the Stagecoach Festival.)
Alexander Haagen III and Alexander Haagen IV have contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Republican National Committee, a pro-Trump dark-money group and other GOP groups and candidates, according to OpenSecrets, a nonpartisan, nonprofit group that tracks electoral finances and the Federal Election Commission.
As for the Madison Square Garden rally, there’s little doubt that despite his Florida residency, Trump remains eternally a New Yorker and can’t resist the idea of filling one of the Big Apple’s iconic venues for a bit of self-glorification along with the thumbing of noses at the city’s progressive elites. This will actually be the third New York event for Trump this year, showing that he doesn’t want to shirk his roots in what he has announced will be his last campaign.
It’s not as though Trump is shirking the top battleground areas; just in the last week, he’s held three rallies in Pennsylvania, including a second one in Butler, the place where he was nearly assassinated in July. But we won’t know for sure until after the election whether his blue-state adventures represent opportunity costs he cannot recoup.
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