When New York’s highest court ordered an independent redistricting commission to redraw the state’s congressional districts, some hoped that the new map would heavily favor the Democratic Party after brutal 2022 midterms that saw the party lose several seats. But on Thursday, the commission’s bipartisan panel voted nine to one in favor of a map that ultimately didn’t make many drastic changes to the one put in place two years ago. It now heads to the State Capitol for the legislature’s consideration and eventual vote.
The map lines up with earlier reporting from Politico that changes to the congressional lines would not be overly punitive to either party. If adopted, it would mean the 22nd Congressional District represented by Republican freshman Brandon Williams would add the cities of Auburn and Syracuse, which is friendlier Democratic territory. The map also appears to bolster two neighboring incumbents: Democratic congressman Pat Ryan and Republican congressman Marc Molinaro, who would pick up some friendlier territory ahead of their reelections. The districts of Republicans Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, and Nick LaLota, whose seats are considered to be toss-ups in November, seem to be largely unchanged.
Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst of Cook Political Report, broke down the impact of the changes on the districts’ competitiveness on X.
The map is the byproduct of complicated and extended fallout from a contentious redistricting process in 2022. That year, on the heels of the 2020 census, the commission was tasked with drawing new districts. But the panel was unable to agree upon a final set of maps, causing the Democratic-led State Legislature to step in and draw its own. That map, highly favorable to the Democratic Party, sparked an immediate court challenge from Republicans. A series of rulings and appeals led to the Court of Appeals, the state’s highest court. The judges ruled that the map constituted unconstitutional gerrymandering and appointed a special master to draw new lines that allowed for more closely drawn districts — ones that sparked extensive controversy during the 2022 election cycle.
But in December, the Court of Appeals — now with a new, more liberal chief judge — ruled in favor of a Democratic-backed challenge to the 2022 map. The petitioners argued that the commission had failed to fulfill its constitutional duty when it was unable to approve a set of maps in 2022. They also contended that the court didn’t specify whether the maps were a temporary measure or were intended to stay in place for the usual ten years.
It’s not yet clear how New York’s Democratic-controlled legislature might vote on the map. New York is expected to play a significant role in the fight for control over the House of Representatives with several seats on the ballot seen as in play for either party. If the legislature rejects the commission’s submission, it would be able to draw its own map. But the body could risk another scolding from the courts if their version seems too egregious, so they may just decide that this is the best they’ll get, at least for now.
One Democratic lawmaker has already voiced his disapproval. State Senator James Skoufis accused the two parties of seeking to protect their incumbent by splitting Orange County into two different districts. “These maps are a disgrace and ought to be rejected by the legislature,” he said in a statement.
