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Nate Silver

  1. early and often
    When Election Modelers AttackAfter years of growing strife, the nerdy business of building polling models has gotten truly nasty.
    By David Freedlander
  2. encounter
    Nate Silver Knows Who Will Win“It’s actually okay to be polarizing.”
    By David Freedlander
  3. the discourse
    Who Is Will Stancil? And Why Is He In Your Feed?The Minnesota policy wonk posting his way to power and influence.
    By David Klion
  4. nerd stuff
    A Brutal Wonk Swap at FiveThirtyEightAfter Disney refused to re-up Nate Silver’s contract at the influential polling blog FiveThirtyEight, it hired his quasi rival, G. Elliott Morris.
    By Matt Stieb
  5. politics
    What Did We Learn About Political Polling in 2020?With Trump and the pandemic, clear answers have been hard to come by.
    By Ed Kilgore
  6. vision 2020
    2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on TwitterNate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
    By Matthew Zeitlin
  7. vision 2020
    In the 2020 Race, Uncertainty Is All Trump Has Going for HimMost of the developments that could produce a Trump comeback and win are beyond the president’s control.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. vision 2020
    Could Bloomberg’s Billions Boost the Odds of a Contested Convention?If multiple candidates steam towards Super Tuesday, Bloomberg’s massive spending on that and later dates could make forming a majority tough.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. impeachment
    No, Democrats Aren’t Plotting to Overturn Trump Victories Past or FutureIn claiming a “coup,” Republicans may be projecting their own unwillingness to acknowledge the popular will onto Democrats.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. Polling Is Still Working, According to Nate SilverThere’s wide variance in the new pollster ratings, but the upshot is that polling is not broken (yet).
    By Ed Kilgore
  11. How Should Political Journalists Handicap Elections?Steve Bannon has called out the “elite press” for misjudging the 2016 race. Is now the right moment to take a lesson?
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. polls
    Nate Silver on What the Polls Got Wrong, and Right, About This ElectionAnd what he got wrong, and right.
    By Benjamin Wallace
  13. Nate Silver’s Forecast (Probably) Overstates Trump’s ChancesFiveThirtyEight isn’t “unskewing” polls. But the site’s forecasting model is based on assumptions that inflate Trump’s prospects.
    By Eric Levitz
  14. No, Nate Silver’s Not ‘Predicting’ Who Will Win the PresidencyIt’s a forecast. Got it?
    By Ed Kilgore
  15. mea culpas
    Nate Silver Apologizes for Ferguson Arrest Story“My anecdote was so minor as compared to Ferguson that last night wasn’t the right time for me to share.”
    By Joe Coscarelli
  16. ferguson
    Nate Silver’s Tone-Deaf Burrito Arrest StoryHow not to tweet during a national tragedy.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  17. the national interest
    Why the New Data Journalism Really Is PartisanData journalism, Obamacare, and the elusive quest for fairness.
    By Jonathan Chait
  18. wonk-stained wretches
    Ezra Klein on Vox’s Launch, Media Condescension, and Competing With WikipediaThe wonk king speaks in-depth about his new explanatory journalism site.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  19. media
    Nate Silver Only Cares About Some of the HatersThe FiveThirtyEight founder explains which on The Daily Show.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  20. Why Paul Krugman Turned Against Nate SilverThe roots of the greatest nerd war ever.
    By Jonathan Chait
  21. party lines
    Katie Couric on Nate Silver and Women in MediaWisdom from those who would know.
    By Kylie Gilbert and Joe Coscarelli
  22. the national interest
    Nate Silver and Obama’s Bracket Having a Sparty PartyBiased and wrong.
    By Jonathan Chait
  23. blog-stained wretches
    The All-New, Stat-Heavy FiveThirtyEight, by the NumbersNate Silver’s new mega-site is live. Time for first impressions!
    By Joe Coscarelli
  24. blog-stained wretches
    Nate Silver Interview: The New FiveThirtyEightThe site debuts on Monday, but the numbers whiz is only 75 percent ready.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  25. blog-stained wretches
    New Media Venture Spring Is Officially Upon Us The New York Times’ new data-driven project gets a name, and ESPN announces another use for Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
    By Caroline Bankoff
  26. blog-stained wretches
    The New FiveThirtyEight Launches Very SoonMarch 17.
    By Caroline Bankoff
  27. ink-stained wretches
    New York Times Replaces Nate Silver, Reorganizes D.C. CoverageMore changes at the Grey Lady.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  28. ink-stained wretches
    The New York Times Has Lost a Lot of Big Names This YearThe Paper of Record is losing very visible talent.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  29. blog-stained wretches
    Nate Silver’s New FiveThirtyEight Wants to Hire More Nate SilversIn sports, politics, and economics.
    By Joe Coscarelli
  30. Nate Silver Didn’t Come Here to Make FriendsHe dismisses grumblings from former Times colleagues.
    By Adam Martin
  31. blog-stained wretches
    What Made Nate Silver Leave the New York Times?The promise of airtime and a lot of editorial freedom, according to Politico.
    By Delia Paunescu
  32. media
    Nate Silver Is Leaving the New York Times for ESPNWhere he’s expected to work with Keith Olbermann.
    By Caroline Bankoff
  33. Ranking Nate Silver’s Trashiest Post-Election Trash TalkHe’s been doing a lot of it.
    By Dan Amira
  34. early and awesome
    Obama Slipped a Nate Silver Joke and a Romney Jab Into His Turkey PardonObama says he has “one more gift to give.”
    By Margaret Hartmann
  35. Q&A With Nate Silver on His Book, Romney, PollsAlso: Dick Morris, poker, the weather, and Hillary.
    By Dan Amira
  36. The Great Uncertainty in Forecasting the PrimariesNate Silver takes a shot at it anyway.
    By Andre Tartar
  37. early and often
    Do the Democrats’ Special Election Losses Mean Anything?Probably, yeah. They mean the Democrats are in trouble.
    By Dan Amira
  38. early and often
    Moderate GOP Governors No Longer ExistNate Silver does the math, as is his wont.
    By Dan Amira
  39. nancy pelosi bionic woman
    Will Pelosi Be Central to a Debt Deal?Boehner might want to start researching chocolatiers.
    By Noreen Malone
  40. election hangover
    Rasmussen Was Off on One Poll by 40 PointsNate Silver ranks the pollsters.
    By Dan Amira
  41. early and often
    People Really Do Not Want to Vote for Democrats This YearThe GOP has its best showing in Gallup’s generic ballot poll since 1942.
    By Dan Amira
  42. blog-stained wretches
    Times to Host FiveThirtyEight and Make Nate Silver Regular ContributorA victory for the little guy who is obsessed with numbers!
    By Chris Rovzar
  43. neighborhood news
    Nate Silver: More on New York Neighborhood Livability IndexThe statistician explains the numbers behind our neighborhood ratings.
    By Chris Rovzar
  44. election 2009
    NY-23 Race Impossible to PredictSo says Nate Silver.
    By Adam K. Raymond
  45. the cuddle muddle
    Math Confirms Governor Paterson Is Not PopularThanks, Nate Silver!
    By Dan Amira
  46. equal rites
    New York Evenly Divided on Gay MarriageNew poll shows 46–46 split on gay marriage, while Nate Silver is pessimistic that it’ll pass the State Senate.
    By Dan Amira
  47. the downturnaround
    Rock and Roll Is Recession-ProofIn today’s digest of good economic news: Hedge funds get back on the plus side, Nate Silver applies his magical mind to the economy, and rock and roll plays so loud it can’t even hear the recession.
    By Hugo Lindgren
  48. Would Clinton Really Have Beaten McCain by a Wider Margin Than Obama?That’s what CBS News and Drudge would have you believe.
    By Chris Rovzar