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Polls

  1. early and often
    Are the Polls Wrong Again? Why Experts Are Worried About ‘Herding’The tsunami of Trump-Harris ties may be due to something pollsters are doing to avoid embarassment.
    By Ed Kilgore
  2. early and often
    No title provided
    Polling Errors Won’t Necessarily Help Trump This TimeKamala Harris could benefit just as easily, as Nate Silver and Steven Kornacki recently pointed out.
    By Ed Kilgore
  3. the city politic
    Hey Democrats, Don’t Panic — Here’s WhyThe polls are tight, but there are a lot of tremendously positive signs for Kamala Harris.
    By Errol Louis
  4. the inside game
    Political strategist David Plouffe
    David Plouffe on Harris vs. Trump: ‘Too Close for Comfort’The veteran strategist on the state of play for his boss, Kamala Harris, and what he thinks of the “bed-wetters.”
    By Gabriel Debenedetti
  5. early and often
    When Election Modelers AttackAfter years of growing strife, the nerdy business of building polling models has gotten truly nasty.
    By David Freedlander
  6. early and often
    Voters Have Barely Moved in This Wild Presidential ElectionComparing 2024 to other recent presidential contests, what’s amazing is how little voter preferences have changed.
    By Ed Kilgore
  7. early and often
    How to Think About National Polls 6 Weeks From the ElectionEven putting possible polling errors aside, there’s a limit to what they can tell us.
    By Ed Kilgore
  8. early and often
    The Battlegrounds Where Harris-vs.-Trump Polling Error Is LikeliestWisconsin and Michigan polled higher for Democrats in 2016 and 2020 than the final results. Trump’s current polls in Georgia and Nevada are suspect.
    By Ed Kilgore
  9. early and often
    Five Mistakes to Avoid When Looking at 2024 Election PollsPolls aren’t perfect, but they are valuable if you know how to process them. Here, a few tips.
    By Ed Kilgore
  10. early and often
    Donald Trump and Joe Biden on the debate stage.
    What the Polls Are Saying After the Trump-Biden DebateDo voters agree with pundits following Biden’s big debate debacle? Here, an up-to-date roundup of what they’ve told pollsters so far.
    By Chas Danner, Benjamin Hart, and Matt Stieb
  11. joe biden
    Will the Trickle of Biden Defections Turn Into a Flood?One Democratic lawmaker called on Biden to step aside, and others are going public with their frustrations.
    By Ed Kilgore
  12. early and often
    Presidential Candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Speaks At The Libertarian National Convention
    Why Kennedy’s Best Polls May Overstate His SupportNon-major-party candidates almost always fade by Election Day, and Kennedy’s poll numbers may be inflated due to question order.
    By Ed Kilgore
  13. early and often
    Why Biden’s Poll Numbers Will Get Better(And why they won’t.)
    By Eric Levitz
  14. the economy
    You Don’t Want 2020 Prices BackOnly a depression could bring back the pre-pandemic levels of inflation.
    By Eric Levitz
  15. early and often
    Americans Really Don’t Like Joe Biden Right NowA series of new polls suggests big problems for the president, with likely voters concerned about his age.
    By Matt Stieb
  16. vision 2024
    The Rise of the Young, Liberal, Nonwhite Republican?A significant minority of GOP voters are not what you would expect.
    By Eric Levitz
  17. early and often
    Biden’s Unpopularity Is More Mysterious Than It LooksThe economy is doing well. So why do so many people hate it?
    By Eric Levitz
  18. vision 2024
    Trump’s Legal Woes Aren’t Bad Enough for the GOP’s Own GoodThe federal indictment has rendered Trump a weaker general-election candidate but done little to aid his primary rivals.
    By Eric Levitz
  19. early and often
    Will the Polls Be Wrong Again in 2022?A lot of Democrats’ current midterms optimism is based on the assumption that today’s polls are more accurate than they were in 2016 or 2020.
    By Ed Kilgore
  20. the economy
    5 Reasons Voters Underrate the Biden EconomyBy most objective measures, today’s economy isn’t bad. So why do Americans say the president is messing it up?
    By Eric Levitz
  21. black voters
    Why Joe Biden Is Bleeding Black SupportThe president’s failure to pass voting-rights legislation is only a small part of the story.
    By Eric Levitz
  22. politics
    Is Trump Losing His Base? New Poll Suggests Otherwise.Talk about Ron DeSantis displacing Trump is very premature and perhaps another sign of the perpetual underestimation of the 45th president.
    By Ed Kilgore
  23. politics
    Never Mind the Facts. Trump Fans Feel Like a MajorityWhen you’ve been convinced polls are fake and actual elections are rigged, it is easy to confuse visible signs of enthusiasm as a ticket to power.
    By Ed Kilgore
  24. supreme court
    Why Is John Roberts So Popular Among Democrats?The chief justice’s enduring appeal suggests the Supreme Court may be able to gut Roe without great cost to its reputation.
    By Eric Levitz
  25. polls
    Is the Media to Blame for Biden’s Bad Poll Numbers?Or is it “the economy, stupid”?
    By Eric Levitz
  26. racial justice
    Smearing Popularism Does Not Help Black VotersPersuasively rebutting David Shor requires scrutinizing his arguments, not stigmatizing them.
    By Eric Levitz
  27. joe biden
    Can Joe Biden Build Back a Better Approval Rating?The president’s poll numbers are getting ugly.
    By Eric Levitz
  28. polls
    Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California RecallBig 2020 polling errors nationwide were followed by big 2021 polling errors in California — but in the opposite direction.
    By Ed Kilgore
  29. california recall election
    A Defeat of the Newsom Recall Will Feed a New Round of MAGA Conspiracy TheoriesThe recall has lost ground, or maybe never had any. But Newsom’s momentum will be treated by Trump and Republicans as signs of a rigged election.
    By Ed Kilgore
  30. explainer
    Yes, Gavin Newsom Could Lose the California Recall to a RepublicanHow voter complacency, GOP enthusiasm, and Democrats’ risky messaging could hand the California governorship to the GOP in September.
    By Ed Kilgore
  31. politics
    Bad News for Andrew Yang With Two Weeks to GoThe erstwhile front-runner is slipping in polls as negative ads begin.
    By Nia Prater
  32. polls
    Polling the Midterms Is Going to Be Risky BusinessIt’s hard to tell whether 2020 polling errors were about Trump, the pandemic, or something more basic and replicable.
    By Ed Kilgore
  33. democracy
    Trump’s Delegitimization of Democracy Isn’t Wearing OffIt remains unclear when — or if — Republicans will begin to accept electoral defeat again.
    By Ed Kilgore
  34. politics
    Biden’s Steady Popularity Depends on Near-Universal Democratic SupportBiden seems to have figured out how to keep his party happy without mobilizing the opposition. But avoiding midterm losses will still be tricky.
    By Ed Kilgore
  35. polls
    Did Trump Ruin Polling, Too?Pollsters are beginning to wonder if Trump succeeded in discouraging response to polls just as he discouraged voting by mail.
    By Ed Kilgore
  36. 2020 hindsight
    Latinas Drove Trump’s Gains With Hispanic Voters in 2020And two other new insights into the demographic’s rightward shift.
    By Eric Levitz
  37. politics
    What Did We Learn About Political Polling in 2020?With Trump and the pandemic, clear answers have been hard to come by.
    By Ed Kilgore
  38. mike pence
    Is Mike Pence Finished in MAGA-Land?It seems four years of toadying to Trump aren’t enough to overcome his “betrayal” on January 6.
    By Ed Kilgore
  39. the republican party
    Capitol Riot Took Toll on GOP Approval, RegistrationsNearly 140,000 Republican voters quit the party in January, while Democrats opened up a double-digit advantage in approval.
    By Eric Levitz
  40. end times
    Trump’s Job Approval Plunging as He Leaves OfficeTrump’s support is in free fall, but is high enough among Republicans to keep them from dumping him. Biden enters office with a bit of a honeymoon.
    By Ed Kilgore
  41. republican party
    Post-Capitol Hill Riot Polls Reveal Big Problem for GOPEven as Trump’s overall popularity hits all-time lows, a large portion of the Republican base sees him as their champion.
    By Eric Levitz
  42. vision 2020
    David Shor’s Postmortem of the 2020 ElectionDemocrats must accept that Biden won through persuasion, not mobilization — and if the party can’t change the Senate, it will need to change itself.
    By Eric Levitz
  43. poll position
    Should We Stop Paying Attention to Election Polls?Polls are like democracy: bad except as compared to all the alternatives.
    By Ed Kilgore
  44. liveblog
    Trump Team Digs In Against Biden: Post-Election UpdatesRepublicans back president’s call election was stolen, as officials refuse to begin transition process for the president-elect.
    By Intelligencer Staff
  45. vision 2020
    What to Watch for on Election Night: An Hour-by-Hour GuideHere’s when we’re likely to know if we’re looking at another Trump upset, a Biden landslide, or a fight that goes into a turbulent overtime.
    By Ed Kilgore
  46. vision 2020
    New Poll Confirms That High Youth Turnout Would Doom TrumpVoters under 35 back Biden in 41 states; in Texas and Georgia, young voters oppose Trump by roughly 20 points.
    By Eric Levitz
  47. coronavirus stimulus
    Why Trump Should Just Cave to Pelosi on Stimulus DealTrump is losing his advantage over Biden in managing the economy. A last-minute stimulus deal may be the only way to get it back.
    By Ed Kilgore
  48. vision 2020
    Trump Is Running Out of Time to Change These 8 Election X-FactorsExamining the remaining variables, the president is in serious trouble just two weeks ahead of his date with reelection fate.
    By Ed Kilgore
  49. vision 2020
    Men and Women Have Never Been More Politically DividedThe gender gap in the 2020 election will be record-breaking — and could persist long after Trump is gone.
    By Eric Levitz
  50. vision 2020
    2020’s Top Election Forecasters Are Fighting on TwitterNate Silver and G. Elliott Morris are trying to make sense of 2020 — and each other.
    By Matthew Zeitlin
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